Citation
CONFIDENTIAL
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ORIGIN INR-00
INFO
LOG-00
DODE-00
H-01
NSAE-00
PRS-01
SS-00
PMB-00
STATE
AF-01
DOEE-00
TEDE-00
NSCE-00
P-01
STR-01
PRM-10
191114
AID-01
EB-01
10-16
01C-02
SB-00
TRSE-00
PRME-01
RELEASED IN FULL
162231Z
AMAD-01
ED-01
JUSE-00
010-04
SNP-00
T-00
DRL-09
CIAE-00
EUR-01
L-01
OMB-01
SP-00
USIE-00
G-00
SMEC-00
OIG0-01
ADS-00
PA-01
SR-00
SNIS-00
/060R
DRAFTED BY: INR/AA:FEHRENREICH:BMS
APPROVED BY: INR/AA:VJFARLEY
AF/C:KAISTON INR/GGI:DKRUMM
DESIRED DISTRIBUTION:
CIA, DIA, NSA
5D642A 162233Z /38
R 162231Z JUL 94
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO ALL AFRICAN DIPLOMATIC POSTS
AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG
AMEMBASSY TUNIS
AMEMBASSY CAIRO
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY ROME
INFO AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA
USMISSION USNATO
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STATE 191114 162231Z
PAGE 02
US CINCEUR VAIHIN6EN 6E
USCENTCOM MC DILL AFB FL
USECU STUTTGART FRG
USASETAF VINCENZA ITALY
CONFIDENTIALSTANE 191114
E.O. 1235&: DECL: OADR
TAGS: RW, CG, PHUM, EAID, PGOV, PREL, SOCI, PREF
SUBJECT: RWANDA/ZAIRE: INTO THE ABYSS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: ARCHIE M BOLSTER
DATE/CASE ID: 05 MAY 2011 201005065
E7 5
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
OASY-00
HHS-01
NEA-01
PM-00
SSO-00
NISC-02
"LONDON FOR MCKINLEY, BRUSSELS FOR DUBROW, PARIS FOR
PERLOW, USNATO FOR FOX, USCINCEUR AND HQ US CENTRAL
COMMAND FOR POLADS, HQ USEUCOM FOR EC J-5, COMMANDER
USASETAF FOR G-2"
UNCLASSIFIED
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT
2. INR'S JULY 15 ASSESSMENT ENTITLED "RWANDA/ZAIRE:
INTO THE ABYSS" IS PROVIDED FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND
COMMENT, AS APPROPRIATE.
BEGIN TEXT
3. THE FLOOD OF SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND RWANDAN
REFUGEES INTO ZAIRE HAS OVERWHELMED FRENCH, UN AND NGO
RELIEF OPERATIONS AND THREATENS TO BRING RWANDA'S
TURMOIL TO ZAIRE. THE PROVISION OF HUMANITARIAN AID TO
THE REFUGEES, VIRTUALLY ALL HUTUS, DEPENDS IN PART ON
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THE COOPERATION OF THE TUTSI-DOMINATED RWANDAN PATRIOTIC
FRONT (RPF).
4. PANICKED BY RPF MOVEMENTS TOWARD THE RUMP
GOVERNMENT'S FORMER ENCLAVE IN NORTHWEST RWANDA,
REFUGEES--INCLUDING MEMBERS OF THE RUMP
GOVERNMENT--YESTERDAY FLED ACROSS THE BORDER INTO ZAIRE
AT THE RATE OF UP TO 14,000 AN HOUR; AS MANY AS EMEC,000
MAY CROSS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REGION OF ZAIRE TO
WHICH THEY ARE FLEEING IS ITSELF DENSELY POPULATED AND
COULD QUICKLY BECOME ENGULFED IN VIOLENCE INDUCED BY THE
INFLUX AND THE PRESENCE OF MILITIAS RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST
OF THE MASSACRES IN RWANDA.
5. RESOURCES OVERWHELMED. THE REFUGEES WERE PROBABLY
DRAWN IN PART BY THE PRESENCE OF FRENCH TROOPS, SEEN BY
RWANDANS AS CAPABLE OF PROVIDING SECURITY AGAINST
POSSIBLE REPRISALS FROM LOCAL ZAIRIANS. NGOS REPORT
THAT FOOD STOCKS WILL LAST ONLY THREE DAYS, THOUGH SOME
LOCAL FOOD SHOULD BE AVAILABLE IN A REGION THAT NORMALLY
RUNS A FOOD SURPLUS. FACED WITH POLITICAL CHAOS AND
SHORTAGES OF FOOD AND MEDICINE, RELIEF AGENCIES ARE
ATTEMPTING TO CONCENTRATE ON IMMEDIATE LIFE-SAVING
REQUIREMENTS.
UNCLASSIFIED
6. THE LOGISTICAL NETWORK FOR RELIEF SUPPLIES WILL STEM
FROM KENYA'S AND TANZANIA'S MAIN PORTS, MOMBASA AND DAR
ES SALAAM. AN AGREEMENT ON A HUMANITARIAN RELIEF
CORRIDOR MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE RPF AND THE PRO-RPF
REGIME IN UGANDA TO ALLOW SHIPMENT OF SUFFICIENT
SUPPLIES FROM THE COAST.
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STATE
191114 162231Z
7. RPF IN DRIVER'S SEAT. ON THE VER6E OF VICTORY, THE
RPF NOW CONTROLS ALMOST ALL RWANDA OUTSIDE THE FRENCH
SECURE ZONE IN SOUTHWESTERN RWANDA, INCLUDING THE ROADS
NECESSARY FOR THE LAND TRANSPORT OF RELIEF SUPPLIES TO
EASTERN ZAIRE. FORMER REFUGEES THEMSELVES, RPF LEADERS
WILL NOT EASILY BE MOVED BY THE PLIGHT OF HUTUS , SOME OF
WHOM THEY BLAME FOR GENOCIDE, NOR BY THE POLITICAL AND
SECURITY DIFFICULTIES FACED BY THE FRENCH AND ZAIRIANS,
WHOM THEY DEEPLY DISTRUST.
8. THE RPF WILL PROFESS COOPERATION WITH INTERNATIONAL
DONORS BUT IMPLEMENTATION WILL FREQUENTLY BE FITFUL,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF RPF MILITARY ACTIVITY. THE
REPORTED ARRIVAL YESTERDAY, OVER FRENCH OBJECTIONS, OF
RUMP GOVERMENT OFFICIALS IN THE FRENCH SECURE ZONE WILL
HEIGHTEN DISTRUST OF THE FRENCH EFFORT. THOUGH MANY
HUTUS WILL REMAIN IN ZAIRE INDEFINITELY, THE EXTENT OF
THE REFUGEE CRISIS WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON THE
POLICIES OF THE RPF, WHICH PROFESSES A COMMITMENT
BUILDING A SOCIETY IN WHICH ETHNICITY DOES NOT MATTER.
9. INTERNATIONAL ROLES. FRENCH OFFICIALS STATED
YESTERDAY THEY WOULD RETAIN FORCES IN EASTERN ZAIRE
AFTER THE UN MANDATE AUTHORIZING THEIR RWANDA
INTERVENTION EXPIRES AUGUST 22. FRENCH EFFORTS TO COPE
WITH THE CRISIS IN EASTERN ZAIRE PROBABLY WILL DIVERT
SCARCE RESOURCES FROM THEIR SECURE ZONE, WHERE THERE ARE
PERHAPS A MILLION DISPLACED PERSONS. THE FRENCH HAVE
REDOUBLED EFFORTS TO INVOLVE THE UN, OTHER COUNTRIES,
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STATE 191114 162231Z
UNCLASSIFIED
AND NGOS IN SHARING THE RELIEF BURDEN; THEY PROBABLY
WILL INTENSIFY THEIR DISCUSSIONS WITH THE RPF TO LIMIT
THE POSSIBLITY OF A NEW POPULATION SURGE INTO ZAIRE FROM
THE SECURE ZONE WHEN THEY WITHDRAW, BUT THE RPF THRUST
TOWARD THE BORDER GIVES LITTLE CAUSE FOR OPTIMISM.
10. THE UNAMIR FORCE NOW IN KIGALI COULD FILL THE VOID
CREATED WHEN THE THE FRENCH DEPART - IF THE RPF PERMITS
IT. ALTERNATIVELY, UNAMIR COULD FACILITATE RELIEF AND
REPATRIATION EFFORTS ALONG THE RWANDA-ZAIRE BORDER. THE
FORCE NOW NUMBERS OVER LOO, BOOSTED BY THE RECENT
REINFORCEMENT OF THE GHANIAN CONTINGENT. THOUGH
ZIMBABWE, SENEGAL, TUNISIA, NIGERIA AND ETHIOPIA cum.
TO BE READY TO DEPLOY OVER 3,000 MORE TROOPS, THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS THUS FAR NOT FOUND THE
RESOURCES TO EQUIP AND TRANSPORT THEM.
R/AA:EHRENREICH, INR/GGI:KRumm)
CHRISTOPHER
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