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C95401 092159Z /38
0 090935Z JUN 93
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4027
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BAMAKO PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BONN PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAKAR PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY HARARE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LAGOS PRIORITY
AMMBASSY LIBREVILLE PRIORITY 0859
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
AMEXBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 0030
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
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USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
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LILONGWE FOR DAO - LT. KELLER
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, MCAP, OAU, RW
SUBJECT: RWANDA VISITED BY TANZANIAN PRIME MINISTER
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: JOHN L MILLS
DATE/CASE ID: 01 NOV 2007 200103014
UNCLASSIFIED
OASY-00
TEDE-00
NSCE-00
SDEL-00
RPE-01
UNCLASSIFIED
1. (C) SUMMARY: THE TANZANIAN PRIME MINISTER
EXPRESSED OPTIMISM AFTER HIS VISIT HERE WITH THE
PRESIDENT, THE PRIME MINISTER, AND RPF LEADER. HE
BBLIEVES THE RPF WILL ACCEPT 40 PERCENT OF ARMY
POSITIONS; GOR WILL DEBATE THIS FIGURE IN CABINET
JUNE 11. MEANWHILE, PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA EXPRESSED
INTEREST IN A REFERENDUM TO FINALIZE THE PEACE ACCORD,
A PROCESS WHICH COULD REQUIRE A DANGEROUS AMOUNT OF
TIME. END SUMMARY.
2. (U) TANZANIAM PRIME MINISTER JOHN MALLCELA,
ACCOMPANIED BY MINISTER OF DEFENSE AND MINISTER OF
FOREIGN AFFAIRS, VISITED RWANDA JUNE 7-8. THEY MET
WITH PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA TWICE, WITH PRIME MINISTER
NSBNGIYAREMYE TWICE, AND TRAVELED TO MULINDI TO MEET
WITH RPF CHAIRMAN KENYARENGWE AND VICE CHAIRMAN MAJOR
KAQAME. ON HIS DEPARTURE FROM THE AIRPORT, THE PRIME
MINISTER EXPRESSED HIS OPTIMISM FOR THE CHANCES OF
PEACE IN RWANDA. THAT'S ALL HE SAID.
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3. (C) DIRECTOR OF THE PRESIDENT'S CABINET ENOCH
RUHIGIRA DESCRIBED THE TALKS AS USEFUL, BUT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF RPF INTENTIONS. RUHIGIRA SAID
THAT THE PRIME MINISTER TOLD THE PRESIDENT THAT HE
WAS CONVINCED THAT THE RPF WOULD ACCEPT 40 PERCENT OF
THE POSITIONS IN THE ARMY, AND THAT KENYAFtENGWE HAD
RECONFIRMED THIS TO HIM DURING THEIR MEETING IN
MULINDI ON JUNE 7. RUHIGIRA SAID THAT THE RWANDA
GOVERNMENT HAS NOT EET AGREED TO 40 PERCENT, STILL
HOPES TO FIND A SOMEWHAT LOWER PERCENTAGE, BUT WILL
DISCUSS THE TANZANIAN PROPOSAL DURING THE NEXT
CABINET MEETING ON FRIDAY, JUNE 11. RUHIGIRA IS NOT
SURE HOW THE TANZANIANS WILL PROCEED NEXT. AS
FACILITATORS THEY MAY PUT THE 40 PERCENT PROPOSAL ON
THE TABLE IN ARUSHA, OR THEY MAY SUGGEST THAT THE RPF
TABLE IT AS A FINAL OFFER.
4. (C) COMMENT: THE INTERNAL DEBATE HERE IS
INTENSE. MDR PRESIDENT TWAGIRAMUNGU WOULD GIVE THE
RPF 45 PERCENT FOR A PEACE AGREEMENT. PSD NATIONAL
SECRETARY GATABAZI WOULD EASILY GIVE THEM 40
PERCENT. IT IS FROM THE PRESIDENT'S SIDE THAT THERE
ARE STRONG RESERVATIONS ABOUT EVEN GOING TO 40
UNCLASSIFIED
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PERCENT. THESE RESERVATIONS ARE BASED FIRST ON
POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS, BUT SECOND ON VERY REAL
SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS, WHEREBY HONEST PEOPLE SUCH
AS GASANA AND RUHIGIRA FEAR THAT A PERCENTAGE FOR THE
RPF THAT IS PARCEIVED TO BE UNREASONABLE WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL VIOLENCE WITHIN THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE,
OF COURSE, OTHERS WITHIN THE MRND CIRCLE WHO USE THIS
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AS A THREAT TO ACHIEVE THEIR POLITICAL OBJECTIVES.
WHATEVER THE MOTIVATIONS, IT WOULD BE EASIER FOR
RWANDANS TO ACCEPT 39 PERCENT THAN 40 PERCENT, AND
EASIER STILL TO ACCEPT WHAT IS SAID TO BE MUSEVENI'S
OFFER OF AN ARMY OF 8,000 RWANDANS AND 5,000 RPF
(38.5 PERCENT). END COMMENT.
5. (C) ALSO DISCUSSED DURING THE PRIME MINISTER'S
VISIT WAS THE FINAL STAGE OF THE AGREEMENT, INCLUDING
THE MEANS OF LEGITIMATING THE PROTOCOLS UNDER RWANDA
LAW. ACCORDING TO ONE SOURCE, THE PRESIDENT SAID HE
PREFERRED TO USE A REFERENDUM AS THE MEANS OF
ACCOMPLISHING THE FINAL STEPS. MDR PRESIDENT
TWAGIRAMUNGU TOLD ME THAT ON FIRST EXAMINATION HE
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OASY-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 10-19 L-03
NSAE-00 NSCE-00 01C-02 OMB-01 PA-01
P-01 SDEL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SS-00
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C90089 090940Z /38
0 090935Z JUN 93
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4028
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BAMAKO PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BONN PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAKAR PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY HARARE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LAGOS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
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C ONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 02 KIGALI 02231
LILONGWE FOR DAO - LT. KELLER
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, MCAP, OAU, RW
SUBJECT: RWANDA VISITED BY TANZANIAN PRIME MINISTER
WOULD HAVE NO OBJECTION TO A REFERENDUM RATHER THAN
RUNNING THE PROTOCOLS THROUGH THE MRND DOMINATED
CND. RUHIGIRA TELLS ME THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS NOT
DECIDED WHETHER TO USE A REFERENDUM OR THE CND.
6. (C) COMMENT: THE REFERENDUM WOULD HAVE THE
ADVANTAGE OF LEGITMATING THE PROCESS WITHOUT RUWNING
THE RISK OF A MRND BLOCKAGE IN THE CND. HOWEVER, IT
WOULD TAKE TIME. AMD IT PROBABLY WOULD REQUIRE
NEGOTIATION WITH THE RPF OVER THE EXACT QUESTIONS TO
BE PUT TO THE PEOPLE. ALTHOUGH TWAGIRAMUNGU
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EXPRESSED HIS WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT A REFERENDUM AT
FIRST BLUSH, I SUSPECT THAT HE AND HIS PARTY WOULD
INSIST ON INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS AND SEVERAL
DIFFERENT FORMS OF SAFEGUARDS IN ORDER TO ASSURE A
FREE AND FAIR VOTE. AGAIN, THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH
THIS IS THE LENGTH OF TIME IT WOULD TAKE, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER VIOLENCE IN THE COUNTRY OR
WITH THE RPF AS THE PROCESS WINDS ITS WAY THROUGH.
MY OWN INCLINATION IS TO ADVISE THE PRESIDENT TO
AVOID THE REFERENDUM, TO GIVE THE PROTOCOL HIS
FERVENT SUPPORT IN THE CND, AND TRY TO GET THE
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RATIFICATION PROCESS DONE WITHIN LESS THAN ONE MONTH
FROM SIGNATURE. END COMMENT. FLATEN
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