Résumé
The RPF leadership is deeply troubled by the upsurge in violence in Rwanda and places most of the blame on Habyarimana, the MRND and CDR. The RPF believes Habyarimana is trying to use the violence to discredit the progress that has been made at Arusha. The RPF believes the USG should issue a strong public statement condemning the current violence, reaffirming our support for the Arusha process and endorsing the protocols that have been initialed these actions might have a sobering effect on Habyarimana. If the ethnic violence in Rwanda continues and large groups of tutsis are killed, the RPF may be forced to act militarily. The RPF is prepared to begin the next round of talks in Arusha immediately but is growing increasingly pessimistic about whether the political turmoil in Kigali will permit an early resumption of negotiations.
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968C82 011326Z /38
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FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5302
INFO AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY KIGALI
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 00713
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, UG, RW
SUBJECT: RPF COMMENTS ON RECENT EVENTS IN RWANDA AND
URGES AMERICAN STATEMENT AND SUPPORT
1.
CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2. SUMMARY: THE RPF LEADERSHIP IS DEEPLY TROUBLED BY
THE UPSURGE IN VIOLENCE IN RWANDA AND PLACES MOST OF
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THE BLAME ON HABYARIMANA, THE MEND AND CDR. THE RPF
BELIEVES HABYARIMANA IS TRYING TO USE THE VIOLENCE TO
DISCREDIT THE PROGRESS THAT HAS BEEN MADE AT ARUSHA.
THE RPF BELIEVES THE USG SHOULD ISSUE A STRONG PUBLIC
STATEMENT CONDEMNING THE CURRENT VIOLENCE, REAFFIRMING
OUR SUPPORT FOR THE ARUSHA PROCESS AND ENDORSING THE
PROTOCOLS THAT HAVE BEEN INITIALED THESE ACTIONS
MIGHT HAVE A SOBERING EFFECT ON HABYARIMANA. IF THE
ETHNIC VIOLENCE IN RWANDA CONTINUES AND LARGE GROUPS OF
TUTSIS ARE KILLED, THE RPF MAY BE FORCED TO ACT
MILITARILY. THE RPF IS PREPARED TO BEGIN THE NEXT
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: HARRY R MELONE
DATE/CASE ID: 14 DEC 2006 200503196
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
ROUND OF TALKS IN ARUSHA IMMEDIATELY BUT IS GROWING
INCREASINGLY PESSIMISTIC ABOUT WHETHER THE POLITICAL
TURMOIL IN KIGALI WILL PERMIT AN EARLY RESUMPTION OF
NEGOTIATIONS. END SUMMARY.
3. RPF DIPLOMATIC REPRESENTATIVE DR. THEOGEN
RUDASINGWA MET WITH THE AMBASSADOR FOR AN HOUR ON
JANUARY 27. RUDASINGWA HAD JUST RETURNED FROM SEVERAL
WEEKS IN RPF-HELD TERRITORY IN RWANDA, AND SAID THAT HE
HAD BEEN INSTRUCTED BY THE RPF EXECUTIVE COUNCIL TO
PASS ON THREE POINTS.
-- THE RPF LEADERSHIP IS DEEPLY TROUBLED BY THE UPSURGE
IN COMMUNAL VIOLENCE THROUGHOUT RWANDA, WHICH IT BLAMES
ON PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA, THE MIOND AND THE CDR.
HABYARIMANA'S INSTIGATION OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND HIS
DECISION TO NAME A NEW NEGOTIATOR IN THE ARUSHA TALKS
ARE AN EFFORT TO OVERTURN THE PROGRESS THAT HAS BEEN
ACHIEVED AT ARUSHA AND TO BLOCK FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS.
HABYARIMANA REMAINS THE BIGGEST OBSTACLE TO PEACE AND
DEMOCRACY, AND THE RPF WILL HOLD HIM PERSONALLY
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RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNNECESSARY DEATHS OF INNOCENT
CIVILIANS.
-- THE RPF IS CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT IT PERCEIVES AS
AMERICA'S SILENCE AND INDIFFERENCE ABOUT RECENT
DEVELOPMENTS IN KIGALI AND ARUSHA. THE RPF HAS ALWAYS
REGARDED THE U.S. AS THE PRINCIPAL EXTERNAL CATALYST IN
THE PEACE PROCESS. IN RECENT WEEKS, THE EC AND
PRESIDENT MITTERRAND HAVE REITERATED THEIR SUPPORT FOR
THE ARUSHA PEACE PROCESS, AND HAVE URGED, ACCORDING TO
RUDASINGWA, GREATER CONCESSIONS FROM HABYARIMANA.
GIVEN THE VIOLENCE IN KIGALI AND THE CONTINUING IMPASSE
OVER THE LATEST ARUSHA PROTOCOLS, THE RPF BELIEVES THE
TIME IS RIGHT FOR THE USG TO ISSUE A STRONG PUBLIC
STATEMENT CONDEMNING THE VIOLENCE, REAFFIRMING ITS
SUPPORT FOR THE ARUSHA PROCESS AND ENDORSING THE ARUSHA
PROTOCOLS SIGNED ON JANUARY 9. (NOTE: IN AN ASIDE,
RUDASINGWA SAID THAT THE RPF'S WASHINGTON REP HAD
REPORTED THAT RWANDAN DESK OFFICER CAROL FULLER HAD
CRITICIZED THE RPF FOR PROCEEDING WITH THE ARUSHA
NEGOTIATIONS IN DECEMBER WHILE INTERPARTY TALKS WERE
PROCEEDING IN KIGALI. RUDASINGWA ALSO CLAIMED THAT
FULLER HAD SAID THE U.S. COULD NOT ACCEPT THE JANUARY
PROTOCOLS SINCE NO U.S. OBSERVERS WERE IN ARUSHA WHEN
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
THEY WERE SIGNED. RUDASINGWA QUESTIONED WHETHER THESE
STATEMENTS WERE HELPFUL AND REPRESENTED OFFICIAL USG
POLICY. END NOTE.)
-- FINALLY, RUDASINGWA SAID THE RPF DID NOT POSSESS
INFINITE PATIENCE AND THAT IF THE POLITICAL VIOLENCE
CONTINUED ON A MAJOR SCALE AND WAS DIRECTED AT ONE
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ETHNIC GROUP (THE TUTSIS), THE RPF WOULD BE FORCED TO
INTERVENE MILITARILY. RUDASINGWA EXPLAINED THAT IT
WOULD BE A MOCKERY To MAINTAIN A CEASEFIRE AND TO CARRY
ON THE TALKS IN ARUSHA WHILE HABYARIMANA AND THE MRND
WERE KILLING PEOPLE IN KIGALI.
4. AFTER MAKING HIS THREE POINTS, RUDASINGWA SAID THE
RPF HAD ALREADY DISPATCHED SEVERAL MEMBERS OF ITS
DELEGATION TO ARUSHA AND THAT IT WAS PREPARED TO BEGIN
NEGOTIATIONS IMMEDIATELY ON REFUGEE ISSUES AND MILITARY
INTEGRATION. HE DOUBTED, HOWEVER, WHETHER THE CURRENT
VIOLENCE AND POLITICAL IMPASSE IN KIGALI WOULD PERMIT
AN EARLY RESUMPTION OF TALKS.
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FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5303
INFO AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY KIGALI
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 02 KAMPALA 00713
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, UG, RW
SUBJECT: RPF COMMENTS ON RECENT EVENTS IN RWANDA AND
5. THE AMBASSADOR THANKED DR. RUDASINGWA FOR HIS
COMMENTS AND SAID HE WOULD CONVEY THEM BACK TO
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER, THE AMBASSADOR ALSO TOLD THE RPF
REP THAT THE SITUATION IN KIGALI IS VERY DELICATE AND
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THAT THE RPF SHOULD NOT DO ANYTHING TO EXACERBATE OR
INFLAME THE PROBLEM. NOW WAS NOT THE TIME FOR
HOT-HEADED RHETORIC OR PRECIPITOUS PUBLIC THREATS. THE
RPF HAD GAINED SUBSTANTIAL CREDIBILITY BECAUSE OF ITS
ADHERENCE TO THE CEASEFIRE AND ITS CONSISTENT
WILLINGNESS TO NEGOTIATE AT ARUSHA. MORE OF THE SAME
WAS CALLED FOR -- A STRICT ADHERENCE TO THE CEASEFIRE
AND A CONTINUED WILLINGNESS TO NEGOTIATE SERIOUSLY BUT
FLEXIBLY. THE AMBASSADOR ALSO WARNED AGAINST DRIVING
HABYARIMANA INTO A TIGHT CORNER BY SAYING HE WOULD BE
PERSONALLY HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THE RECENT DEATHS AND
VIOLENCE. THIS WOULD MAKE HIM EVEN MORE STUBBORN. THE
AMBASSADOR ALSO NOTED THAT WHILE WE HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY SILENT PUBLICLY, OUR AMBASSADOR IN KIGALI
HAS BEEN ACTIVE BEHIND THE CURTAINS IN URGING REASON,
RESTRAINT AND COMPROMISE ON A VERY HARDHEADED
HABYARIMANA.
6. RUDASINGWA SAID HE COULD CONVEY THE AMBASSADOR'S
COMMENTS BACK TO THE RPF LEADERSHIP, BUT THAT FUTURE
RPF ACTIONS WOULD DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENTS IN RWANDA.
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7. THE AMBASSADOR'S DISCUSSION WITH DR. RUDASINGWA
ABOUT THE ICRC'S EFFORT TO TRANSPORT FOOD INTO RWANDA
ALONG THE KAGITUMBA ROAD IS REPORTED SEPTEL.
CARSON
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