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STATE 165200 012113Z
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2231
DRAFTED BY: AF/C: CSFULLER - (AF)
APPROVED BY: AF/C: RMPRINGLE
C5FB25 012114Z /38
P R 012111Z JUN 93
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO AMEMBASSY KIGALI PRIORITY
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY HARARE
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
AMEMBASSY PARIS
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
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LIMITED OFFICIAL USE STATE 165200
LILONGWE AND YAOUNDE FOR DATT
E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: MOPS MCAP PREL RW
SUBJECT: ARUSHA PEACE TALKS: FORCE PROPORTION DISCUSSIONS RESUME
JOYCE LEADER PROVIDED THE FOLLOWING REPORT FROM ARUSHA.
BEGIN TEXT:
1. SUMMARY: THE FACILITATOR'S REPRESENTATIVE LAID BEFORE
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: CHARLES L DARIS
DATE/CASE ID: 10 JAN 2006 200103014
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THE TWO PARTIES 5/31 A FORCE PROPORTION PROPOSAL THAT
WOULD HAVE LOW-END PARTICIPATION IN THE 35 - 40 PERCENT
RANGE. HE DID NOT INDICATE WHICH FORCE WOULD FALL IN THIS
RANGE. CONSULTATIONS ARE TO BEGIN IMMEDIATELY ON THIS
ISSUE EVEN THOUGH SOME MILITARY ISSUES ARE STILL PENDING
AND REFUGEE TALKS ARE TO OPEN JUNE 2. EARLY ASSUMPTIONS
AND MISCONCEPTIONS OF THE PROPOSAL MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
BE CLARIFIED. AS INTENDED, HOWEVER, THE PROPOSAL MEANS
THE RPF WILL HAVE NO LESS THAN 35 PCT. AND NO MORE THEN 40
PERCENT, FORCING BOTH SIDES TO REDUCE THEIR OWN
EXPECTATIONS AND MODIFY THEIR POSITIONS.
END SUMMARY.
2. THE FACILITATOR'S REPRESENTATIVE, AMBASSADOR AMI
MPUNGWE, TOLD THE TWO PARTIES IN A PLENARY SESSION 5/31,
THAT HIS CONSULTATIONS ON FORCE PROPORTIONS WOULD BE BASED
ON A RANGE OF 35 - 65 PERCENT TO 40 - 60 PERCENT. HE SAID
PRESIDENT MWINYI HAD INSTRUCTED HIM TO PRESENT THIS
PROPOSAL AS "THE MOST REALISTIC" RANGE BASED ON
CONSULTATIONS WITH HIGH LEVEL AUTHORITIES OF BOTH SIDES.
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MPUNGWE CAREFULLY AVOIDED INDICATING WHICH FORCE WOULD
FALL AT WHICH END OF THE SPECTRUM. HE ADDED, HOWEVER,
THAT PROPORTIONS MIGHT VARY FOR VARIOUS LEVELS OF THE
MILITARY SERVICE. CONSIDERATIONS WILL BEGIN ON THIS ISSUE
6/1.
3. GOR FOREIGN MINISTER NGULINZIRA TOLD THE PLENARY THERE
WAS "WISDOM" IN THE PROPOSAL AND HE HOPED IT WOULD PROMPT
RAPID AGREEMENT ON THE ISSUE. RADIO RWANDA SUBSEQUENTLY
REPORTED THAT THE PROPOSAL OF THE FACILITATOR ACCORDED
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PCT OF THE ARMY TO THE RPF, AN
ASSUMPTION THAT HAS YET TO BE PINNED DOWN.
4. RPF DELEGATION HEAD BIZIMUNGU TOLD THE PLENARY THAT
POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS ADDRESSED IN OTHER PROTOCOLS
SHOULD NOT BE LINKED TO INTEGRATION OF THE TWO ARMIES, A
REFERENCE TO EARLIER GOR JUSTIFICATIONS FOR ATTRIBUTING
LOW PERCENTAGES TO THE RPF. ANOTHER RPF LEADER TOLD THE
U.S. OBSERVER THAT THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE OF 35 - 40
PERCENT IS TOO NARROW AND THAT EVEN A 40 - 60 PERCENT MIX
MAKES THE IMBALANCE BETWEEN THE FORCES OF THE TWO SIDES
(ABOUT FIVE BATTALIONS) TOO GREAT. HE ALSO SUGGESTED THAT
THE RPF WOULD NOT AUTOMATICALLY ASSUME ITS FORCES WOULD
FALL AT THE LOW END
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5. SOME RPF MEMBERS AND AT LEAST ONE OBSERVER ARGUE FOR A
TOTALLY DIFFERENT INTERPRETATION OF THE FACILITATOR'S
PROPOSAL. THEY WOULD HAVE THE RANGE FOR NEGOTIATION
DEFINED AS ANYTHING BETWEEN 35 AND 65 PERCENT OR BETWEEN
40 AND 60 PERCENT, WITH 50-50 STILL A POSSIBILITY. A
MEMBER OF THE TANZANIAN DELEGATION ASSURED THE U.S.
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OBSERVER THAT THIS WAS NOT THE FACILITATOR'S INTENTION.
INDEED, THE TANZANIAN SAID THAT INSTRUCTIONS ARE THAT THE
RPF SHOULD NOT HAVE MORE THAN 40 PERCENT. SOME DAYS MAY
BE NEEDED TO CLARIFY THIS CONFUSION.
6. COMMENT: THE FACILITATOR'S PROPOSAL, ASSUMING THE RPF
CAN BE CONVINCED TO ACCEPT SOMETHING IN THE 35 - 40
PERCENT RANGE, PUSHES BOTH SIDES TO MODIFY PREVIOUS
POSITIONS AND ACCEPT A LOWER OVERALL PERCENTAGE OF THE
ARMED FORCES THAN ANTICIPATED. THE CONSULTATIONS ARE
UNLIKELY TO BE EASY. END COMMENT.
CHRISTOPHER
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