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Date Printed: 12/31/1997 DOC_NUMBER: 93DARES01522
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ABC21C 260509Z /38
O 260502Z MAR 93
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0785
AMEMBASSY KIGALI PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 01522
STATE FOR AF/C-FULLER, AF/RA
ALSO PARIS FOR PERLOW, BRUSSELS FOR DUBROW
E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PGOV, OAU, RW, TZ
SUBJECT: BACKGROUND TO RWANDA TALKS CONCERNING
MILITARY FORCE SIZE
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DAR ES 01522 01 OF 03 260508Z
REF: A. DAR ES SALAAM 1408
THE FOLLOWING REPORT WAS PROVIDED BY THE US OBSERVER
AT THE ARUSHA TALKS, AF/RA POL/MIL EXPERT, LTC
ANTHONY MARLEY.
1. ON 20 MARCH THE RWANDAN PARTIES NOTIFIED THE
FACILITATOR THAT AN IMPASSE HAD BEEN REACHED IN THE
PEACE TALKS CONCERNING THE SIZE OF THE INTEGRATED
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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY:
ROBERT R. STRAND
DECONTROLLED/UNCLASSIFIED
DEUUN 1 KULLED/ UN CLAN NIP ILIJ
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ARMED FORCES. THE GOR WAS PROPOSING A TOTAL FORCE OF
25,000; ARMY OF 17,000 AND A GENDARMERIE OF 8,000.
THE RPF SEEKS A TOTAL MILITARY NOT EXCEEDING 15,000
PERSONNEL, BUT ARE SOMEWHAT FLEXIBLE CONCERNING THE
SIZES OF THE ARMY AND GENDARMERIE WITHIN THAT
CEILING. FOLLOWING DISCUSSIONS AMONG THE FACILITATOR
AND THE OBSERVERS, IT WAS AGREED TO HAVE EACH PARTY
MEET SEPARATELY WITH THE JOINT FACILITATOR/OBSERVERS
TO EXPLAIN ITS POSITION AND DISCUSS THE ISSUES. THE
FACILITATOR RELAY TO THE GOR THE COMMON OPINION OF
THE FACILITATOR AND OBSERVERS THAT THE PROPOSED 25K
FORCE WAS EXCESSIVE; THE GOR SHOULD CONSIDER A
SMALLER ARMY PLUS THE CREATION OF A NATIONAL POLICE.
2. THE GOR DELEGATION MET WITH THE FACILITATOR AND
OBSERVERS FOR THREE AND ONE-HALF HOURS ON SUNDAY
MORNING, 21 MARCH (APPARENTLY THE OBSERVERS HAVE
GIVEN UP CHURCH FOR RAMADAN). THE GOVERNMENT
DELEGATION CLAIMED THAT THE WORLD BANK RECOMMENDED
THAT RWANDA SPEND 2.5 PERCENT OF ITS GNP ON THE ARMY,
AND BY THE GOR'S CALCULATIONS, THAT MEANT AN ARMY OF
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DAR ES 01522 01 OF 03 260508Z
17,000. ADDITIONALLY, THE GOR BELIEVES IT WILL FACE
INCREASED SECURITY PROBLEMS STEMMING FROM
DEMOBILIZATION, THE RETURN OF EXILES TO RWANDA, THE
EVOLUTION OF MULTIPARTY POLITICS AND ETHNIC
TENSIONS. THIS WOULD REQUIRE A GENDARMERIE OR
POLICE-TYPE FORCE OF ONE POLICEMAN PER 1,000 CITIZENS
WHICH, FOLLOWING THE RETURN OF SOME 500,000 EXILES,
WOULD MEAN 8,000 GENDARMES. THE GOVERNMENT COULD NOT
CREATE A NATIONAL POLICE OR OTHERWISE ALTER THE
EXISTING STRUCTURES, HOWEVER; ONLY THE BROAD BASED
TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT WOULD HAVE THAT AUTHORITY.
THE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT COULD ALSO DEMOBILIZE THE
INTEGRATED ARMED FORCES BELOW THE LEVEL OF 25,000 IF
THE CIRCUMSTANCES SO REQUIRE. THE GOR THEN WENT TO
GREAT LENGTHS TO EXPLAIN THAT THE GENDARMERIE WAS A
NATIONAL POLICE IN ALL BUT NAME (AND MINISTRY IN
WHICH IT IS PLACED), THAT INCIDENTS OF GENDARMES
FIGHTING ALONGSIDE THE FAR AGAINST THE RPF WERE
HISTORICAL ABERRATIONS CAUSED BY THE CURRENT
CONFLICT, THAT THE GENDARMERIE SHOULD REALLY NOT BE
CONSIDERED A MILITARY SERVICE WITHIN THE ARMED
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FORCES, AND THAT DUE TO ITS SPECIALIZED POLICE
FUNCTIONS IT WOULD BE BETTER NOT TO INTEGRATE THE
GENDARMERIE WITH ARMY PERSONNEL DRAWN FROM THE RPF.
3. THE ZIMBABWEAN DEFENSE ATTACHE RECOMMENDED THAT
THE GOR DISCUSS WITH THE RPF THE SPECIALIZED
MISSIONS, ORGANIZATION AND TRAINING OF THE
GENDARMERIE TO ENSURE THE RPF UNDERSTOOD THE POLICE
FUNCTION ACTUALLY PERFORMED BY GENDARMES. LTC
ANTHIERHENS OF BELGIUM SAID IT WAS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
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THAT BELGIUM RECENTLY "DEMILITARIZED" ITS
GENDARMERIE; DUE TO ITS SPECIALIZED POLICE FUNCTIONS
THE BELGIAN GENDARMERIE WAS COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM
THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE.
THE USREP MADE SEVERAL POINTS:
- THE GOR SHOULD NOTE THAT THE WORLD BANK FIGURE
OF 2.5 PERCENT WAS A CEILING NOT TO BE EXCEEDED,
RATHER THAN A RECOMMENDED MINIMUM OR TARGET.
- THAT IF THE TRANSITION GOVERNMENT COULD
DEMOBILIZE ADDITIONAL FORCES BELOW 25,000, THAT IN A
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ABC234 260510Z /38
0 260502Z MAR 93
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0786
AMEMBASSY KIGALI PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 02 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 01522
STATE FOR AF/C-FULLER, AF/RA
ALSO PARIS FOR PERLOW, BRUSSELS FOR DUBROW
E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PGOV, OAU, RW, TZ
SUBJECT: BACKGROUND TO RWANDA TALKS CONCERNING
MILITARY FORCE SIZE
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SIMILAR MANNER IF THE TWO PARTIES AGREED TO A SMALLER
FORCE THE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT COULD LATER EXPAND
IT IF NEED BE, DRAWING FROM THE POOL OF DEMOBILIZED
SOLDIERS.
- IT APPEARS THAT THE POST-CONFLICT INTEGRATED
ARMY WOULD HAVE THE SAME MISSIONS AS THE PRE-WAR
ARMY, BUT WOULD BE CONFRONTED BY A REDUCED THREAT
SINCE THE GREATEST DANGER HAD BEEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ARMED INVASION OF EXILES (RPF). IT IS DIFFICULT
THEREFORE TO UNDERSTAND WHY THE GOVERNMENT SEEKS TO
MORE THAN DOUBLE THE SIZE OF THE PRE-WAR ARMY.
- FOLLOWING THE END OF THE COLD WAR, THERE HAS
BEEN A SEA CHANGE IN THE U.S. SECURITY ASSISTANCE
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POLICIES. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO SUPPORT FOR
TRADITIONAL MILITARY ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS, AND WE HAVE
THE REQUIREMENT TO CONSIDER THE SIZE OF A COUNTRY'S
MILITARY WHEN MAKING DECISIONS CONCERNING THE
PROVISION OF DEVELOPMENTAL ASSISTANCE. THEREFORE,
WHILE WE MAY POSSIBLY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ASSISTANCE
TO A DEMOBILIZATION EFFORT, WE WOULD BE DISINCLINED
TO SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF AN EXCESSIVELY LARGE
MILITARY.
MR. FELLI OF THE OAU THEN POINTED OUT THE RISKS POSED
TO A GOVERNMENT BY A LARGE POORLY PAID MILITARY,
DRAWING ON THE EXAMPLE OF HIS NATIVE GHANA. HE
CONTINUED BY STATING THAT THE WORLD-WIDE TREND IS
TOWARD MILITARY DOWNSIZING AND CAUTIONED THE GOR THAT
THE RETENTION OF A LARGE MILITARY COULD ADVERSELY
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AFFECT DONOR ASSISTANCE. THE GERMAN REPRESENTATIVE
CONCLUDED THE OBSERVERS' COMMENTS BY STATING THAT THE
SIZE OF A STATE'S MILITARY WEIGHS HEAVILY IN
GERMANY'S DECISION-MAKING FOR DEVELOPMENT
ASSISTANCE. HE REINFORCED THE DIFFICULTY OBSERVERS
HAVE IN UNDERSTANDING THE RETENTION OF A LARGE ARMY
WHEN THE THREAT HAS BEEN REDUCED.
4. TANZANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER KINANA CONCLUDED THE
MEETING WITH THE GOR BY RECOMMENDING THAT THEY REFINE
THE DESCRIPTION AND MISSION OF THE GENDARMERIE TO
THAT OF A POLICE, AND CONSIDER MOVING THEM OUT OF THE
MINISTRY OF DEFENSE. HE SYMPATHIZED WITH THE
PROBLEMS OF DEMOBILIZATION FACING THE GOR, AS HE IS
CURRENTLY OVERSEEING THE DOWNSIZING OF A TANZANIAN
MILITARY. HE THEN ASKED THE GOR TO SPEED THE
NEGOTIATIONS SO THAT THE MILITARY ASPECTS CAN BE
CONCLUDED ON 25 MARCH.
5. COMMENT: IN DISCUSSIONS WITH THE GOR DELEGATION,
THE TWO GOVERNMENT MINISTERS HAVE BEEN OPEN TO THE
IDEA OF COMPROMISE, WHILE AMBASSADOR KANYARISHOKE AND
THE MILITARY MEMBERS HAVE BEEN HARDLINERS. THE GOR
IS EXPECTED TO RESIST MOVING THE GENDARMERIE TO THE
INTERIOR MINISTRY, OR A MAJOR REDUCTION IN THE SIZE
OF THE GENDARMERIE AND CREATION OF A NATIONAL POLICE
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UNDER INTERIOR AS THE RPF IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THE
INTERIOR MINISTRY PORTFOLIO IN THE TRANSITION
GOVERNMENT END COMMENT.
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6. FOLLOWING THE MEETING WITH THE GOR, THE
FACILITATOR AND OBSERVERS MET FOR 40 MINUTES WITH THE
RPF. THEIR DELEGATION LEADER, PASTEUR BIZIMUNGU,
SAID THAT THE MISSIONS ASSIGNED TO THE ARMED FORCES,
THE SMALL SIZE OF RWANDA, AND THE STATE OF ITS
ECONOMY ALL ARGUE FOR A SMALL MILITARY. HE THEN
INVOKED THE RISKS POSED TO THE COUNTRY AND ITS
GOVERNMENT BY A LARGE, POORLY PAID MILITARY. HE SAID
THAT THE PRE-WAR MILITARY CONSISTED OF A 7,000 MAN
A
RMY AND A GENDARMERIE OF 2500. THE RPF PROPOSES AN
ARMY OF 10,000-11,000, ALREADY A 50 PERCENT INCREASE
AND A GENDARMERIE OF 3000-3500. ALTERNATIVELY, THE
RPF WOULD ACCEPT AN ARMY OF 13,000 AND A 500 MAN
GENDARME INTERVENTION UNIT UNDER DEFENSE, AND THE
CREATION OF A 3000 MAN NATIONAL POLICE AND GENDARMES,
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ABC26F 260513Z /38
0 260502Z MAR 93
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0787
AMEMBASSY KIGALI PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 03 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 01522
STATE FOR AF/C-FULLER, AF/RA
ALSO PARIS FOR PERLOW, BRUSSELS FOR DUBROW
E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PGOV, OAU, RW, TZ
SUBJECT: BACKGROUND TO RWANDA TALKS CONCERNING
MILITARY FORCE SIZE
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WHEN ADDED TO THE APPROXIMATELY 3000 COMMUNAL (LOCAL)
POLICE ALREADY EXISTING, WOULD GIVE A TOTAL
POLICE-FUNCTION PERSONNEL LEVEL IN EXCESS OP 6,000.
7. THE ONLY QUESTION OR OBSERVATION ADDRESSED TO THE
RPF CONCERNED WHETHER, FOR THE PURPOSE OF ACHIEVING
PEACE, THE RPF WOULD BE WILLING TO INCREASE THE SIZE
OF THE MILITARY. BIZIMUNGU REPLIED IN THE NEGATIVE,
STATING THAT FUNDS THAT WOULD BE UTILIZED TO PAY FOR
AN EXPANDED MILITARY SHOULD INSTEAD BE USED TO
FINANCE DEMOBILIZATION AND THE CREATION OF JOBS
RATHER THAN PAY FOR UNNEEDED SOLDIERS.
8. ONE HOUR AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF THE MEETING WITH
THE RPF, PATRICK MAZIMPHAKA OF THE RPF APPROACHED
AMBASSADOR MPUNGWE OF TANZANIA, AND THE GERMAN,
BELGIAN, AND US REPRESENTATIVES TO SAY THAT THE RPF
WAS WILLING TO ACCEPT A TOTAL OF 18,000 FOR A
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COMBINED ARMY/GENDARMERIE/NATIONAL POLICE. HE
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE CONCEPT OF ONE POLICEMAN PER
1000 CITIZENS MADE SENSE (AS RECOMMENDED BY GOR), AND
THEREFORE THE RPF WAS RECOMMENDING AN ARMY OF
12-13,000, AND A GENDARMERIE/NATIONAL POLICE OF
5-6000 PLUS THE EXISTING COMMUNAL POLICE. THE RPF
WANTS THE GENDARMES/NATIONAL POLICE AND THE COMMUNAL
POLICE UNDER THE INTERIOR MINISTRY, AND RECOMMENDS
THAT THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT PROVIDE SOME FUNDING
SUPPORT FOR THE COMMUNAL POLICE.
9. THE FACILITATOR WILL CONVEY THE RPF'S PROPOSAL TO
THE GOR DELEGATION AND WILL PUSH STRONGLY FOR ITS
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ACCEPTANCE. IF THE GOR BALKS OVER THE ISSUE OF
TRANSFERRING THE GENDARMERIE/POLICE TO THE INTERIOR
MINISTRY, THE FACILITATOR WILL PROPOSE PLACING THE
GENDARMES/POLICE UNDER THE PRIME MINISTER'S' OFFICE.
THIS WAS PROPOSED EARLIER IN THE NEGOTIATIONS BY THE
RPF, SO THEY COULD BE CHIVVIED INTO ACCEPTING IT, AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL ADVANTAGE THAT NEITHER THE MRND
(PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA'S PARTY) NOR THE RPF HOLD THE
PRIME MINISTER'S PORTFOLIO IN THE TRANSITION
GOVERNMENT. THE TWO PARTIES ARE SCHEDULED TO RESUME
DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS THE MORNING OF 22 MARCH. THE
FACILITATOR AND OBSERVERS HOPE THAT THEY CAN AGREE ON
THE SIZES OF THE FORCES AND PROCEED TO THE EVEN
GREATER STUMBLING BLOCK INVOLVING INTEGRATION RATIOS
FOR EACH OF THE FORCES.
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