Citation
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UNCLASSIFIED
PAGE 01
ACTION AF-01
BUJUMB 01299 01 OF 05 160220Z
INFO LOG-00 COR-01
H-01
HA-09
ADS-00 NSAE-00
PRS-01 P-01
USIE-00 RPE-01
AMAD-01
TEDE-00
NSCE-00
SNP-00
PMB-00
RELEASED IN FULL
OASY-00
CIAE-00 C-01
LAB-01
10-16
INR-00
PA-01
OIC-02 OMB-01
TRSE-00
SS-00
SP-00
/040W
3CA1E4 160223Z /38
P 150830Z APR 94
FM AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3355
INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
USDA() YAOUNDE CM PRIORITY
DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ-4// PRIORITY
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 01 OF 05 BUJUMBURA 01299
C O R R E C T E D COPY (SUBJECT LINE)
E.O. 12356: OADR:DECL.
TAGS: PINS, PINR, PGOV, MOPS,RW
SUBJECT: NED FROM KIGALI AND AN ANALYSIS OF WHAT HAPPENED
FOLLOWING THE PRESIDENT'S DEATH AND WHY
REF: NAIROBI 6551
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02
BUJUMB 01299 01 OF 05 160220Z
1. THIS IS A JOINT STATE/DIA CABLE THAT ATTEMPTS TO
PROVIDE A CHRONOLOGICAL ACCOUNTING OF EVENTS FROM THE
TIME OF PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA'S DEATH AT ABOUT 21:30
P.M. ON 6 APRIL UNTIL THE DEPARTURE OF THE LAST U.S.
CONVOY OUT OF KIGALI AT 13:00 P.M. ON 10 APRIL. THE
RECOUNTING OF EVENTS COMES FROM A LOG MAINTAINED BY
ECONOFF WITH INPUT FROM OTHER EMBOFFS AND DISCUSSIONS
WITH VARIOUS THIRD COUNTRY NATIONALS. THIS REPORT
DOES NOT PRETEND TO BE 100 PERCENT ACCURATE BUT ONLY
PROVIDES THE EMBASSY TEAMS' UNDERSTANDING OF EVENTS
THAT TRANSPIRED IN A CONFUSING AND DANGEROUS
ENVIRONMENT.
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: WILLIAM E LANDFAIR
DATE/CASEID:07JUN2006 200103014
UNCLASSIFIED
EUR-01
L-01
PM-00
T-00
UNCLASSIFIED
2. WE WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO EXPLAIN WHY CERTAIN EVENTS
TOOK PLACE AND THEIR EFFECT ON THE MILITARY AND
PROVIDE AN ASSESSMENT AS TO WHERE THE COUNTRY IS
HEADED NOW.
CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS:
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 6
9:00 P.M.
FIRST EXPLOSION HEARD, UNAMIR
REPORTS IT IS HEADING TOWARD THE
AIRPORT TO INVESTIGATE.
9:30 P.M.
RADIO RTLM REPORTS THAT THE
PRESIDENT'S PLANE IS SHOT DOWN.
9:35 P.M.
GENDARME DETACHMENT AT KANOMBE
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03
BUJUMB 01299 01 OF 05 160220Z
AIRPORT REPORT THAT THEY WERE IN
COMMUNICATION WITH THE PRESIDENT'S
PLANE JUST BEFORE IT CRASHED.
COMMUNICATION WAS CUT WHEN THE
ELECTRICITY WENT OUT FOR SEVERAL
MINUTES AT THE AIRPORT.
10:45 P.M.
RPF SAYS ITS FORCES IN THE CND
COMPOUND ARE ON ALERT.
11:30 P.M.
COL MARCHAL (UNAMIR KIGALI SECTOR
COMMANDER) TELLS ECONOFF THAT
PRESIDENT IS CONFIRMED DEAD.
12:00 P.M.
CONTACTED RSO IN BUJUMBURA TO
ADVISE THAT SECURITY SITUATION IN
KIGALI WAS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY.
THURSDAY, APRIL 7
5:00 A.M.
HEAVY MORTAR FIRE HEARD, FOLLOWED
BY AUTOMATIC WEAPONS FIRE
PRESIDENTIAL GUARD UNITS BEGIN
ENTERING HOMES, LOOKING FOR
OPPOSITION MINISTERS. TACTICS USED:
PRESIDENTIAL GUARD THROWS GRENADES
INTO HOMES, FORCING OCCUPANTS OUT;
SOLDIERS THEN SHOOT FLEEING
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
OCCUPANTS.
FIRST REPORTS THAT GOR FORCES HAVE
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04
BUJUMB 01299 01 OF 05 160220Z
CONTROL OF THE AIRPORT.
6:00 A.M.
PRIVATE AND OFFICIAL AMERICAN
WARDEN SYSTEM ACTIVATED
9:45 A.M.
FIRE FIGHT BEGINS ON KIMIHURURA
BETWEEN PRESIDENTIAL GUARD AND
UNIDENTIFIED GOR FORCES. (RPF STILL
HAS NOT FIRED ON ANY GOR FORCES).
10:00 A.M.
DCM LEADER'S HOUSE OCCUPIED BY
SEVERAL PRESIDENTIAL GUARD SOLDIERS
WHO ARE LOOKING FOR THE ACTING
PRIME MINISTER.
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01
ACTION AF-01
BUJUMB 01299 02 OF 05 152233Z
INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 C-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 10-16
01C-02 OMB-01 PA-01
TRSE-00
SS-00
SP-00
/037W
OASY-00
L-01
PM-00
T-00
H-01
EUR-01 HA-09
ADS-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00
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PRS-01 P-01
USIE-00 RPE-01 PMB-00
3C93CF 152244Z /38
P 150830Z APR 94
FM AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3356
INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
USDAO YAOUNDE CM PRIORITY
DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ 4// PRIORITY
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY
-
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 05 BUJUMBURA 01299
CORRECTED COPY (ADDING SUBJECT LINE - PLEASE
CORRECT ALL SECTIONS)
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
E.O. 12356: OADR:DECL.
TAGS: PINS, PINR, PGOV, MOPS,RW
SUBJECT: NEO FROM KIGALI AND AN ANALYSIS OF WHAT HAPPENED
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02
BUJUMB 01299 02 OF 05 152233Z
FOLLOWING THE PRESIDENT'S DEATH AND WHY
11:00 A.M.
SOLDIERS LEAVE DCM'S HOUSE,
THREATENING HER AGAINST USE OF HER
TELEPHONE.
11:05 A.M.
WILLARD MUNGER OF MUDENDE
UNIVERSITY REPORTS THAT CIVILIANS
HAVE ENTERED UNIVERSITY COMPOUND
AND BEGUN KILLING TUTSI STUDENTS,
INCLUDING THE SON OF THE MINISTER
OF AGRICULTURE. ECONOFF CONTACTS
GISENYI GENDARMES ASKING FOR
ASSISTANCE.
11:10 A.M.
GAKONI ORPHANAGE REPORTS ETHNICALLY
MOTIVATE KILLINGS ON ITS COMPOUND;
28 INITIALLY REPORTED DEAD. ECONOFF
CONTACTS UNAMIR DMZ COMMANDER, COL
YAATSE, ASKING IF A UN PATROL CAN
BE SENT IMMEDIATELY TO ASSIST
AMCITS AT THE ORPHANAGE.
12:00 P.M.
EMBOFFS BEGIN RECEIVING REPORTS
THAT MINISTER OF INFORMATION, LABOR
AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS, AND AGRICULTURE
ARE DEAD.
12:20 P.M.
EMBOFFS BEGINNING HEARING REPORTS
FROM VARIOUS CONTACTS THAT MINISTER
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03
BUJUMB 01299 02 OF 05 152233Z
OF LABOR AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS AND
ACTING PRIME MINISTER ARE BOTH
DEAD; UNAMIR GUARDS PROTECTING THEM
HAVE ALSO BEEN KILLED; 7 OF THE 10
BELGIAN SOLDIERS PROTECTING ACTING
PRIME MINISTER REPORTEDLY CUT UP
INTO PIECES RATHER THAN BEING SHOT.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
13:15 P.M.
MEMBERS OF ASIAN BUSINESS
ASSOCIATION REPORT STORES IN DOWN
TOWN KIGALI BEING LOOTED.
14:00 P.M.
ROZ CARR REPORTS ETHNIC KILLINGS IN
MUTURA
14:30 P.M.
HEAVY FIGHTING REPORTED NEAR PRIME
MINISTER DESIGNATE'S HOUSE, AIRPORT
RUNWAY REPORTED BLOCKED WITH TRUCKS
AND EQUIPMENT.
14:35 P.M.
REPORTS THAT FRENCH MILITARY ON
ALERT IN BANGUI
14:45 P.M.
CONTACT RSO BUJUMBURA TO GIVE
SITUATION REPORT.
15:00 P.M.
REPORTS FROM GIKONDO AREA RESIDENTS
THAT BOTH GOR FORCES AND CIVILIANS
(BELIEVED TO BE INTERHAMWE ) ARE
ENTERING HOUSES AND KILLING TUTSI
OCCUPANTS.
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04
BUJUMB 01299 02 OF 05 152233Z
UNAMIR NO LONGER ANSWERING
TELEPHONE AT FORCE HEADQUARTERS OF
KIGALI SECTOR COMMAND; LATER
REPORTS THAT FORCE HEADQUARTERS HIT
BY MORTAR.
RPF ISSUES ULTIMATUM THROUGH UNAMIR
TO THE GOR FORCES THAT THEY WILL BE
FORCED TO ATTACK IF THE GOR DOES
NOT STOP THE KILLING IN KIGALI
WITHIN 12 HOURS.
16:00 P.M.
REFUGEES STREAM INTO EMR CLAIMING
RPF WILL SHOOT THEM IF THEY SEEK
REFUGUE IN NEARBY CHURCHES ACROSS
THE ROAD.
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01
ACTION AF-01
BUJUMB 01299 03 OF 05 152246Z
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 C-01
TEDE-00 1NR-00 10-16
OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01
TRSE-00
SS-00
SP-00
/037W
OASY-00
L-01
PM-00
T-00
H-01
EUR-01 HA-09
ADS-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00
SNP-00
PRS-01 P-01
USIE-00 RPE-01 PMB-00
3C9427 152250Z /38
P 150830Z APR 94
FM AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3357
INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
USDA() YAOUNDE CM PRIORITY
DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ - 4// PRIORITY
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 03 OF 05 BUJUMBURA 01299
C O R R E C T E D COPY (ADDING SUBJ LINE - PLS CORR ALL SECTIONS)
E.O. 12356: OADR:DECL.
TAGS: PINS, PINR, PGOV, MOPS,RW
SUBJECT: NEO FROM KIGALI AND AN ANALYSIS OF WHAT HAPPENED
FOLLOWING THE PRESIDENT'S DEATH AND WHY
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02
BUJUMB 01299 03 OF 05 152246Z
18:00 P.M.
FIGHTING DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY;
ONLY KIMIHURURA AND GIKONDO REPORT
SPORADIC GUNFIRE; EMBASSY PROVIDES
RADIO WARDEN MESSAGE WHICH IS
TRANSMITTED VIA TELEPHONE TO
PRIVATE AMCITS.
19:30 P.M.
DATT, ECONOFF AND RSO DISCUSS
POSSIBILITY OF OVERLAND EVACUATION.
AMBASSADOR ASKS THAT DATT AND
ECONOFF BEGIN PLANNING OF
EVACUATION.
20:00 P.M.
SPORADIC GUNFIRE AND GRENADE BLASTS
HEARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
FRIDAY, APRIL 8
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
1:00 A.M.
TWO OFFICIAL AMCIT HOUSES TAKE HITS
DURING THE NIGHT; HEAVY FIGHTING
REPORTED IN KIMIHURURA.
8:00 A.M.
WARDEN MESSAGE TO ALL AMCITS
9:00 A.M.
ALL HOUSES IN KIMIHURURA AND
KACIKIRU LOOSE ELECTRICITY AND
TELEPHONE COMMUNICATIONS
10:00 A.M.
OFFICIAL AMERICANS ADVISED TO TURN
OFF THEIR RADIOS AND ONLY TURN THEM
ON EVERY HOUR ON THE HOUR FOR FIVE
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03
BUJUMB 01299 03 OF 05 152246Z
MINUTES FOR SECURITY UPDATES.
11:00 A.M.
DATT, PC ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICER,
ECONOFF AND GSO ASSISTANT ESCORTED
TO EMBASSY BY GENDARMES.
13:00 P.M.
DATT AND ECONOFF MEET WITH GENERAL
DALLAIRE AT MINISTRY OF DEFENSE TO
ADVISE HIM THAT WE ARE PLANNING AN
OVERLAND EVACUATION; GENERAL
DALLAIRE SAYS HE IS NEGOTIATING
16:00 P.M.
IN FIRE FIGHT BEHIND EMR, FAR
SHOOTS INTO EMR COMPOUND, KILLING
ONE CHILD AND WOUNDING TWO ADULTS.
WITH MGEN NDINDILIYIMANA TO
ESTABLISH THE TERMS OF A CEASE FIRE
AT THIS POINT, ECONOFF COULD NO LONGER CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A LOG AS PLANNING FOR EVACUATION WAS BEGUN
REQUIRING CONTINUOUS CONTACT WITH BOTH PRIVATE AND
OFFICIAL AMCITS.
TEAM WITHIN THE EMBASSY ESTABLISHED OPEN LINE WITH
STATE OPS CENTER AND EUCOM. THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
CONTACTS WERE MADE WITH THE FRENCH AND FAR MILITARY
FOR SECURITY UPDATES. DATT BEGAN NEGOTIATING WITH FAR
AND ECONOFF WITH THE RPF THROUGH UNAMIR LIAISON FOR
GUARANTEE OF SAFE PASSAGE FOR AMCIT CONVOYS. INITIAL
PLANS MADE FOR GROUND EVACUATION FROM THREE ASSEMBLY
POINTS: AMERICAN CLUB, AMBASSADOR'S RESIDENCE, AND
CONFIDENTIAL
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
BUJUMB 01299 03 OF 05 152246Z
PAGE 04
KIGALI INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL. AS PART OF THE PLANNING,
GSO (FROM HER RESIDENCE), ECONOFF AND GSO ASSISTANT
BEGAN CONTACTING AMERICANS VIA RADIO AND/OR TELEPHONE
PROVIDING INSTRUCTIONS AND FINDING OUT IF AMCITS CAN
REACH DESIGNATED ASSEMBLY POINTS. ECONOFF ALSO TRIES
COORDINATING WITH UNAMIR TO ASSIST AMCITS OUTSIDE
KIGALI.
SATURDAY, APRIL 9
AT 3:00 A.M, EMBOFFS HEAR PLANE LANDING; REPORTS
LATER THAT FRENCH MILITARY LANDED AND SECURED
AIRFIELD. EUCOM NOTIFIES EMBASSY OF AVAILABILITY OF
AIRCRAFT FOR AIR EVACUATION, BUT ALSO LEAVE OPTION
OPEN FOR GROUND EVACUATION. AT APPROXIMATELY 08:00
CONFIDENTIAL
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ACTION AF-01
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LOG-00
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01C-02
SP-00
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BUJUMB
CIAE-00
INR-00
OMB-01
SS-00
01299
04 OF 05
C-01
10-16
PA-01
TRSE-00
152256Z
OASY-00
L-01
PM-00
T-00
EUR-01
ADS-00
PRS-01
USIE-00
HA-09
NSAE-00
P-01
RPE-01
H-01
NSCE-00
SNP-00
PMB-00
3C94AE 152259Z /38
P 150830Z APR 94
FM AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3358
INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
USDAO YAOUNDE CM PRIORITY
DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ 4// PRIORITY
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY
-
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 04 OF 05 BUJUMBURA 01299
C O R R E C T E D COPY (ADDING SUBJ LINE-PLS CORR ALL SECTIONS)
E.O. 12356: OADR:DECL.
TAGS: PINS, PINR, PGOV, MOPS,RW
SUBJECT: NEO FROM KIGALI AND AN ANALYSIS OF WHAT HAPPENED
FOLLOWING THE PRESIDENT'S DEATH AND WHY
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
CONFIDENTIAL
BUJUMB 01299 04 OF 05 152256Z
PAGE 02
A.M., AMBASSADOR IN CONSULTATION WITH EMBOFFS DECIDES
ON THE GROUND EVACUATION OPTION FROM KIGALI, THROUGH
BUTARE, TO BUJUMBURA. EMBOFFS UNDER THE IMPRESSION
THAT TEMPORARY CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATED THE DAY BEFORE
HAD GONE INTO EFFECT AT 6:00 A.M.
DATT ARRANGES FOR GENDARME ESCORTS FOR THREE CONVOYS
SENT OUT AT 12:30, 13:10 AND 14:00 P.M. MOST
AMERICANS LEAVE IN THE FIRST OF THESE THREE C ONVOYS.
FIRST CONVOY CROSSES THE BORDER BEFORE 18:00 P.M. THE
OTHER TWO CONVOYS ARRIVE AFTER BORDER CLOSED. WITH
ASSISTANCE FROM RSO BUJUMBURA, REMAINING TWO CONVOYS
CROSS BOARDER AT 3:00 A.M.
SUNDAY, APRIL 10
EMBOFFS RECEIVE REPORTS THAT CEASEFIRE NOT HOLDING
AND THAT RPF IS ADVANCING ON KIGALI. DECISION MADE TO
EVACUATE ALL REMAINING AMERICANS INCLUDING SKELETON
EMBASSY CREW PRIOR TO 12:00 P.M. AGAIN UNAMIR AND FAR
CONTACTED FOR SAFE PASSAGE GUARANTEES FOR AMERICAN
CONVOYS. TWO CONVOYS LEFT KIGALI, AFTER HEROIC
EFFORTS ARE MADE BY EMBOFF WALT MEYERS AND PRIVATE
CANADIAN CITIZEN VERNON DEMILLE TO GET REMAINING
AMERICANS TRAPPED IN GIKONODO AND KACIKIRU TO
ASSEMBLY POINTS. ONE CONVOY DEPARTS AT 11:00 A.M.;
THE SECOND CONVOY DEPARTS AT 13:30 P.M. WITH 108
VEHICLES AND 600 PEOPLE (ONLY 9 OF WHICH ARE
AMERICANS). THE SECOND CONVOY SWELLED IN SIZE AS
GERMANS, INDIANS, CANADIANS AND OTHER EXPATRIATES
DECIDE TO JOIN THE AMERICAN CONVOY TO ESCAPE THE
FIGHTING IN THE CITY. THIS LAST CONVOY ARRIVES IN
CONFIDENTIAL
BUJUMB 01299 04 OF 05 152256Z
PAGE 03
BUJUMBURA AT 23:30 P.M.
ASSESSMENT:
2. WAS THE PRESIDENT ASSASSINATED; AND IF SO, TO WHAT
END?
BECAUSE NO FORMAL INVESTIGATION OF THE DOWNED
AIRCRAFT WAS CONDUCTED, IT IS PURE SPECULATION
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WHETHER THE PLAN WAS SHOT DOWN BY HOSTILE FIRE OR
ACCIDENTALLY CRASHED. ACCORDING TO DISCUSSIONS
BETWEEN FRENCH MILITARY AND DATT, UNAMIR WAS
INTENDING TO CONDUCT AN INVESTIGATION OF THE DOWNED
AIRCRAFT AND SPECIFICALLY TO RETRIEVE THE BLACK BOX
IN ORDER TO DETERMINE THE CAUSE OF THE CRASH. TO OUR
KNOWLEDGE THAT HAS NOT YET BEEN DONE.
IF IN FACT THE PRESIDENT WAS ASSASSINATED, AMONG MANY
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS, THREE SEEM MOST LIKELY. SCENARIO
ONE: RPF ASSASSINATES PRESIDENT BECAUSE HABYARIMANA
IS SEEN AS AN IMPEDIMENT TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
TRANSITION GOVERNMENT. WITHIN THIS SCENARIO IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE RPF PLANNED THE DEATH OF THE
PRESIDENT KNOWING THE REACTION IT WOULD CAUSE THEREBY
ALLOWING THEM THE OPPORTUNITY TO EXIT THE CND
COMPOUND WITH THE OBJECTIVE OF TAKING ALL OR PART OF
THE CITY OF KIGALI. THIS IS SOMETHING THEY WERE
NEVER ABLE TO DO DURING THE THREE YEAR CIVIL WAR AND
WOULD GIVE THEM AT A MINIMUM, GREAT BARGAINING
ADVANTAGE IN THE FORMATION OF A GOVERNMENT.
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04
BUJUMB 01299 04 OF 05 152256Z
SCENARIO TWO: ASSASSINATION BY SOUTHERN HUTUS ALSO
DISSATISFIED BY PRESIDENTIAL INTRANSIGENCE AND FEAR
THAT THIS INTRANSIGENCE WAS A SIGN THAT HABYARIMANA
AND HIS INNER CIRCLE WERE IMPLEMENTING PLANS TO
ELIMINATE SOUTHERN HUTUS AND OPPOSITION LEADERS
BEGINNING WITH THE KILLING OF GAPIYSI AND LATER
MINISTER OF PUBLIC WORKS GATABAZI.
SCENARIO THREE: NORTHERN HUTU HARDLINERS KILL THE
PRESIDENT IN ORDER TO USE HIS DEATH AS AN EXCUSE TO
ELIMINATE THE RPF AND SYMPATHETIC HUTU LEADERSHIP,
EFFECTING STOPPING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ARUSHA
PEACE ACCORDS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF TRANSITION
INSTITUTIONS.
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01
ACTION AF-01
BUJUMB 01299 05 OF 05 152300Z
INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 C-01
10-16
TEDE-00 INR-00
01C-02 OMB-01 PA-01
H-01
OASY-00 EUR-01 HA-09
ADS-00
NSAE-00
NSCE-00
L-01
SNP-00
PRS-01 P-01
PM-00
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
SP-00
/037W
SS-00
TRSE-00 T-00
USIE-00 RPE-01 PNB-00
3C9514 152303Z /38
P 150830Z APR 94
FM AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3359
INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
USDA() YAOUNDE CM PRIORITY
DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ-4// PRIORITY
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 05 OF 05 BUJUMBURA 01299
CORRECTED COPY (ADDING SUBJECT LINE - PLEASE
CORRECT ALL SECTIONS)
E.O. 12356: OADR:DECL.
TAGS: PINS, PIER, PGOV, MOPS,RW
SUBJECT: NEO FROM KAGALI AND AN ANALYSIS OF WHAT HAPPENED
FOLLOWING THE PRESIDENT'S DEATH AND WHY
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02
BUJUMB 01299 05 OF 05 152300Z
3. WAS THE EXECUTION OF OPPOSITION MINISTERS
FOLLOWING THE DEATH OF THE PRESIDENT PLANNED AND/OR
SANCTIONED BY THE MILITARY HIERARCHY OR WAS IT A
SPONTANEOUS REACTION BY A LOYAL GRIEF STRICKEN
PRESIDENTIAL GUARD LOOKING FOR REVENGE ?
DCM WAS TOLD BY THE COMMANDANT OF THE MILITARY
TRAINING SCHOOL THAT A PLAN WAS IN PLACE TO KILL
OPPOSITION MINISTERS SHOULD THE PRESIDENT BE
ASSASSINATED ( SEE REFTEL). SINCE THERE WERE NO
REPORTS FOLLOWING THE PRESIDENT'S DEATH OF FAR FORCES
ATTEMPTING TO PREVENT THE PRESIDENTIAL GUARDS KILLING
SPREE, IT CAN ONLY BE ASSUMED THAT EITHER THE
MILITARY FELT POWERLESS TO STOP IT OR CONDONE IT BY
THEIR INACTION. (COMMENT: THE ARMY AND GENDARMES
COMBINED SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ACT TO CONTAIN AN
APPROXIMATELY 500 MAN PRESIDENTIAL GUARD. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE REPORTS THAT SOME SOLDIERS AND GENDARMES
PARTICIPATE WITH GENDARMES IN ATTACKING CIVILIANS,
LOOTING HOMES AND STORES AND KILLING /ANKING
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. THEREFORE, DEPENDING ON THEIR
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
NUMBER, IT MAY IN FACT HAVE BEEN IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE
ARMED FORCES TO EFFECTIVELY INTERVENE. END COMMENT.)
4. DID THE NORTHERN VERSUS SOUTHERN HUTU RIVALRY IN
THE MILITARY RESULT IN FIGHTING WITHIN THE FAR'S
RANKS AFTER THE PRESIDENT'S DEATH?
ALTHOUGH TENSIONS ALWAYS EXISTED IN THE MILITARY
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HUTUS, DURING
CONFIDENTIAL
BUJUMB 01299 05 OF 05 152300Z
PAGE 03
RWANDA'S THREE YEAR CIVIL WAR, THIS TENSION NEVER
RESULTED IN FIGHTING BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS WITH THE
FAR RANKS. ALTHOUGH THERE WERE RUMORS THAT THERE WERE
FIGHTING BETWEEN THESE TWO FACTIONS, NONE HAVE EVER
BEEN SUBSTANTIATED IN NUMEROUS DISCUSSIONS WITH FAR
OFFICERS AND THIRD COUNTRY MILITARY OFFICIALS.
THEREFORE IF THESE TENIONS FLARED INTO ACTUAL
FIGHTING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SOLDIERS ,
SUCH FIGHTING WAS CONTAINED TO A VERY LOW LEVEL.
5. WILL CURRENT FIGHTING RESULT IN A MILITARY
STANDOFF OR WILL BOTH SIDES AGREE TO A QUICK
CEASEFIRE FOLLOWED BY ATTEMPTS AT REINSTITUTING THE
ARUSHA ACCORDS?
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THE ARUSHA ACCORDS WERE SIGNED BY
BOTH SIDES BECAUSE THEY WERE EXHAUSTED AFTER THREE
YEARS OF CIVIL WAR WHICH RESULTED IN NO SIGNIFICANT
ADVANTAGE FOR EITHER SIDE. EMBOFFS STILL BELIEVE THAT
BOTH SIDES ARE WAR WEARY AND DO NOT WANT A PROLONGED
CONFLICT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO NOW IS FOR THE RPF
TO GAIN QUICK MILITARY ADVANTAGE BY TAKING ALL OR
PART OF KIGALI AND THEN SUEING FOR PEACE, RECOGNIZING
THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD KIGALI MILITARILY BUT
THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RULE UNILATERALLY WITHOUT
VIOLENT REPRISALS AGAINST FELLOW TUTSIS IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE. THE RPF, HOWEVER, IS UNLIKELY TO SUE FOR
PEACE UNTIL MOST ELEMENTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL GUARD
ARE ELIMINATED IN KIGALI.
EMBOFFS DO NOT SEE RPF'S ATTACK AS HAVING THE
OBJECTIVE OF TOTALLY DEFEATING THE FAR. INSTEAD,
CONFIDENTIAL
BUJUMB 01299 05 OF 05 152300Z
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CAPTURING ALL OR PART OF KIGALI IS AIMED AT
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING THEIR BARGAINING POSITION IN
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
A FUTURE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT BASED ON THE
RESURRECTIONS OF THE ARUSHA ACCORDS PRINCIPLES.
LANGE
CONFIDENTIAL
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