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DRAFTED BY: AF/C: KCAISTON
APPROVED BY: AF: GEMOOSE
AF/FO: PXBUSHNELL
AF/C: ANMENDER
2D0793 080032Z /38
P R 080032Z MAR 94
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO AMEMBASSY KIGALI PRIORITY
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY PARIS
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
CONFIDENTIAL
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CONFIDENTIALSTATE 057870
YAOUNDE FOR DATT
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS RW
SUBJECT: NTAGERURA: TRANSITION GOVERNMENT IMMINENT?
REF: A) KIGALI 0853 B) KIGALI 0934
1.
CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2. SUMMARY. IN A MARCH 3 MEETING, PRESIDENT
HABYARIMANA'S SPECIAL EMISSARY, RWANDAN MINISTER OF
TRANSPORT ANDRE NTAGERURA, TOLD A/S MOOSE THAT PRESIDENT
HABYARIMANA WAS DOING EVERYTHING HE COULD TO PUT THE
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: WILLIAM E LANDFAIR
DATE/CASE ID: 18 JAN 2005 200401096
E5 8
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TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS IN PLACE. HE HIGHLIGHTED THE
COMPROMISES THAT CAME OUT OF THE FEB. 25 AND FEB. 27
MEETINGS CALLED BY THE PRESIDENT AND SUGGESTED THAT THE
COMPOSITION OF THE ASSEMBLY WAS NOW SETTLED AND ONLY THE
ISSUE OF PL MINISTERS REMAINED TO BE DECIDED. HE SAID
THE ASSEMBLY COULD FORM VERY SOON, AND THE CABINET MIGHT
BE IN PLACE BY THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. A/S MOOSE
EXPRESSED OUR CONCERN OVER THE RECENT VIOLENCE AND SAID
WE FEARED THAT IF THE IMPASSE DRAGGED ON, THE SECURITY
SITUATION COULD WORSEN. HE STRESSED THAT THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAD ALREADY DONE A GREAT DEAL FOR
RWANDA AND SAID THAT THE RWANDANS MUST DO THEIR SHARE AND
RESOLVE THE CURRENT IMPASSE. HE EXPRESSED CONCERN OVER
THE FACT THAT NOT ALL PARTIES HAD BEEN INVITED TO THE
FEB. 25 AND FEB. 27 MEETINGS, BUT WAS ENCOURAGED BY THE
MINISTER'S STATEMENT THAT THE PRESIDENT WAS MAKING EVERY
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EFFORT TO BREAK THE IMPASSE. HE REMINDED NTAGERURA THAT
THE SELECTION OF DEPUTIES AND MINISTERS SHOULD BE LEFT TO
EACH PARTY, WITHOUT OUTSIDE INTERFERENCE. NTAGERURA
AGREED AND SAID THE PRESIDENT WAS NOT INTERFERING, MERELY
TRYING TO BRING THE VARIOUS SIDES TO THE TABLE. END
SUMMARY
3. PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA SENT HIS PERSONAL EMISSARY,
MINISTER OF TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS ANDRE NTAGERURA,
TO THE U.S. TO EXPLAIN THE EFFORTS UNDERWAY TO FORM THE
TRANSITION GOVERNMENT. AFTER VISITING NEW YORK TO MEET
WITH THE UN SYG (REF A), NTAGERURA TRAVELED TO WASHINGTON
AND MET WITH AF A/S MOOSE ON MARCH 3. HE WAS ACCOMPANIED
BY RWANDAN AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S. AIOYS UWIMANA. AF/C
DIRECTOR RENDER AND RWANDA DESKOFF AISTON (NOTETAKER)
ALSO ATTENDED.
NTAGERURA SEES PROGRESS TOWARD FORMING GOVERNMENT
4. NTAGERURA THANKED THE U.S. FOR ITS SUPPORT FOR THE
PEACE PROCESS. HE SAID THE GOR KNEW THE U.S. HAD PLAYED
AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN ENSURING APPROVAL OF THE UN
PEACEKEEPING MISSION, AND THE RWANDANS UNDERSTOOD THAT
THE OPERATION REPRESENTED A SIGNIFICANT EXPENSE. HE
ASSURED A/S MOOSE THAT THE RWANDANS HAD DONE THEIR BEST
TO ENSURE THAT THE UN MISSION WOULD BE WORTH THE EFFORT
AND EXPENSE.
5.
THE MINISTER SAID HABYARIMANA HAD TRIED TO FORM THE
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TRANSITION GOVERNMENT SHORTLY AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE UN
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TROOPS, BUT INTERNAL PROBLEMS WITHIN SOME OF THE
COALITION PARTIES PREVENTED THE INSTALLATION OF THE
GOVERNMENT. HE SAID THESE PARTIES ARE WORKING TO RESOLVE
THE PROBLEMS AND HAVE MADE SOME PROGRESS.
6. ACCORDING TO NTAGERURA, HABYARIMANA HAS BEEN PUSHING
ALL SIDES TO FORM THE GOVERNMENT AND HAS WORKED TO BRING
EVERYONE TO THE TABLE TO REACH A RESOLUTION. HE POINTED
OUT THAT HABYARIMANA HAD CALLED TWO ALL-PARTIES MEETINGS
ON FEB. 25 AND 27, WHICH LED TO IMPORTANT COMPROMISES.
ACCORDING TO NTAGERURA, THE MDR HAS REACHED AGREEMENT ON
BOTH ITS MINISTERIAL AND ASSEMBLY SEATS. AS FOR THE PL,
ITS LEADERS HAVE REACHED A COMPROMISE ON THE DIVISION OF
ASSEMBLY SEATS AND ARE NOW NEGOTIATING ON MINISTERIAL
POSITIONS. HE PRESENTED THE COMPROMISES AS A DONE DEAL
AND SAID THOSE WHO HAVE OBJECTED TO IT WILL BE
MARGINALIZED.
7. IN LIGHT OF THESE RECENT COMPROMISES, NTAGERURA
THOUGHT THAT THE ASSEMBLY COULD FORM VERY SOON, PERHAPS
WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK. HE ADDED THAT THE CABINET MIGHT BE
IN PLACE SOON THEREAFTER, PERHAPS AT THE END OF THE NEXT
WEEK. CONCERNING HIS VISIT TO NEW YORK, NTAGERURA SAID
THAT THE SYG DID NOT HAVE THE MOST RECENT INFORMATION AND
WAS UNDER THE MISTAKEN IMPRESSION THAT THERE HAD BEEN NO
PROGRESS ON FORMING THE GOVERNMENT. HE SAID HE HAD
UPDATED THE SYG ON THE RECENT PROGRESS.
MINISTER ASKS FOR CONTINUED U.S. SUPPORT
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DESPITE
THE
PROGRESS, NTAGERURA EMPHASIZED THAT THE
8.
RWANDANS STILL NEEDED U.S. SUPPORT AND PRESSURE. HE SAID
HE WAS NOT ASKING THE U.S. TO TAKE A POSITION ON WHOM TO
CHOOSE FOR WHICH MINISTRIES OR DEPUTY SEATS; RATHER, HE
THOUGHT THAT WE COULD OFFER USEFUL ADVICE ON HOW TO
OVERCOME THE IMPASSE AND COULD PRESS ALL SIDES TO
COMPROMISE.
9. NTAGERURA ADDED THAT ONCE THE GOVERNMENT IS IN PLACE,
RWANDA WILL NEED ASSISTANCE FOR THE LATER STAGES OF THE
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PEACE PROCESS, INCLUDING DEMOBILIZATION AND RELAUNCHING
OF THE ECONOMY. HE POINTED OUT THAT RWANDA'S ECONOMIC
SITUATION WAS ALMOST CATASTROPHIC AND REITERATED
PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA'S REQUEST, MADE DURING LAST
OCTOBER'S VISIT TO WASHINGTON, THAT THE U.S. SUPPORT
RWANDA IN ITS TALKS WITH THE WORLD BANK AND IMF.
A/S MOOSE CALLS FOR INSTALLATION OF GOVERNMENT
10. A/S MOOSE REPLIED THAT WE HAVE BEEN VERY CONCERNED
ABOUT THE SITUATION IN RWANDA FOR SOME TIME. HE SAID THE
U.S. WAS PROUD TO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ASSIST RWANDA DURING
THE PEACE TALKS AND HAS WORKED TO PROVIDE CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ARUSHA ACCORDS. A/S
MOOSE SAID THE ACCORDS ARE THE SOLUTION TO RWANDA'S
PROBLEMS, WHICH IS WHY WE SUPPORTED UN DEPLOYMENT TO
MONITOR IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ACCORDS. HE NOTED THAT THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAD ALREADY DONE A GREAT DEAL FOR
RWANDA AND ITS PATIENCE WAS WEARING THIN.
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A/S
MOOSE
EMPHASIZED
THAT ALL SIDES MUST DO
11.
EVERYTHING THEY CAN TO PUT THE TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS IN
PLACE. HE ADDED THAT WE HOPED THE PRESIDENT WOULD
CONTINUE TO ACT IN THE NATIONAL INTEREST. HE SAID WE
INTENDED TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN ENGAGED IN RWANDA BUT IT
WAS CRUCIAL THAT THE RWANDANS DO THEIR SHARE. A/S MOOSE
SAID THE ASSASSINATION OF THE PUBLIC WORKS MINISTER AND
THE RECENT VIOLENCE HAD BEEN VERY TROUBLING AND EXPRESSED
CONCERN THAT IF THE CURRENT IMPASSE IS NOT RESOLVED SOON,
THERE WOULD BE MORE PROBLEMS ALONG THESE LINES.
NTAGERURA SAYS HABYARIMANA NOT BLOCKING PROCESS
12. A/S MOOSE THANKED THE MINISTER FOR EXPLAINING THE
EFFORTS THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO INSTALL THE GOVERNMENT.
HE SAID HE HAD TO ADMIT THAT WE HAD HAD ANOTHER
IMPRESSION OF THE SITUATION. IT HAD APPEARED TO US THAT
SOME PROBLEMS STILL REMAINED. THIS WAS DUE IN PART TO
THE FACT THAT NOT ALL PARTIES HAD BEEN INVITED TO THE
FEB. 25 AND FEB. 27 MEETINGS, WHICH LEFT THE IMPRESSION
THAT THE SOLUTION WAS BEING IMPOSED ON THE PARTIES. A/S
MOOSE SAID WE FOUND THIS TROUBLING. HE EMPHASIZED THAT
HE HAS A GREAT DEAL OF RESPECT FOR THE PRESIDENT AND
RECOGNIZED THAT HABYARIMANA WANTED TO BREAK THE IMPASSE
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BUT THE APPROACH HE TOOK WAS NOT ENTIRELY CONSTRUCTIVE.
A/S MOOSE EXPLAINED THAT THE U.S. HAS DONE ITS BEST TO
MAINTAIN A BALANCED POSITION, AND HE STRESSED THE
IMPORTANCE OF MAINTAINING A DIALOGUE WITH ALL/ALL SIDES.
13.
NTAGERURA ADMITTED THAT SOME PEOPLE WERE SAYING
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HABYARIMANA WAS BLOCKING THE PROCESS TO PROTECT HIS OWN
INTERESTS. HOWEVER, HE SAID THAT IN TRUTH, THE PRESIDENT
HAS PUSHED HARD TO HELP THE PARTIES RESOLVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES. HE NOTED THAT THE COMPROMISE WHICH WAS
PROPOSED IN THE FEB. 25/27 MEETINGS ORIGINATED WITH THE
RELIGIOUS LEADERS; HABYARIMANA WAS ONLY TRYING TO USE
HIS POSITION AS PRESIDENT TO MEDIATE, BUT HIS EFFORTS HAD
BEEN MISINTERPRETED. HE ADDED THAT THE PRESIDENT WAS
VERY CONCERNED WITH THE SECURITY SITUATION AND WAS DOING
EVERYTHING HE COULD TO PUT THE TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS IN
PLACE.
14. NTAGERURA STRESSED THAT THE PRESIDENT'S MEDIATION
EFFORTS HAD BEEN SUCCESSFUL; THE RESULTS OF THE FEB.
25/27 MEETINGS REPRESENTED REAL COMPROMISES IN WHICH THE
LEADERSHIP OF THE PL AND MDR FACTIONS HAD MOVED OFF OF
THEIR PREVIOUS MAXIMALIST POSITIONS. HE NOTED THAT THE
RPF SAID THEY WOULD NOT ACCEPT THE COMPROMISE, BUT ASKED
HOW THE RPF CAN COMPLAIN IF THE LEADERS OF THE TWO PL
FACTIONS THEMSELVES HAVE ACCEPTED IT.
NTAGERURA AGREES, PARTIES SHOULD CHOOSE THEIR OWN REPS
15. A/S MOOSE AND AF/C DIRECTOR RENDER EMPHASIZED THAT
IT IS UP TO THE PARTIES THEMSELVES TO DECIDE WHO THEIR
MINISTERS AND DEPUTIES WILL BE. CONCERNING THE PL
MINISTERIAL PORTFOLIOS, RENDER SAID THAT THE COMPROMISE
MUST BE BETWEEN THE TWO FACTIONS WITHIN THE PL, WITHOUT
INTERFERENCE FROM OTHER PARTIES. SHE EMPHASIZED THAT WE
HAVE MADE THESE SAME POINTS TO THE RPF.
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16. NTAGERURA AGREED THAT IT WAS UP TO THE PL ITSELF TO
CHOOSE ITS MINISTERS AND DEPUTIES. THE ADVICE/PRESSURE
HE WANTED FROM US WAS TO LET THE PARTIES DECIDE FOR
THEMSELVES. AF/C DIRECTOR RENDER RESPONDED THAT
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HABYARIMANA HAD TO FOLLOW THIS SAME ADVICE. IN RESPONSE,
NTAGERURA RETURNED TO HIS EARLIER POINT THAT THE
PRESIDENT WAS NOT INTERFERING; HE WAS ONLY TRYING TO
BRING THE FACTIONS TOGETHER SO THEY COULD SOLVE THE
PROBLEMS BETWEEN THEMSELVES. ACCORDING TO NTAGERURA, IF
IT WERE UP TO THE PRESIDENT, THE TRANSITION GOVERNMENT
WOULD HAVE FORMED LONG AGO. A/S MOOSE SAID HE WAS
REASSURED BY THE MINISTERS STATEMENTS.
17. RENDER ASKED WHETHER IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO INSTALL
THE TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS RIGHT AWAY AND LET ANY
DISPUTED SEATS BE DECIDED LATER. NTAGERURA SAID THIS HAD
BEEN SUGGESTED BUT SAID IT WOULD BE CONTRARY TO THE
SPIRIT OF NATIONAL RECONCILIATION TO GO FORWARD WITH THE
GOVERNMENT WITHOUT HAVING ALL FACTIONS REPRESENTED. HE
SAID THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE STRONGER AND LESS LIKELY TO
BE SUBJECT TO AN ATTACK ON ITS LEGITIMACY IF ALL FACTIONS
ENTER THE GOVERNMENT AT THE SAME TIME.
18. COMMENT: DESPITE NTAGERURA'S BELIEF THAT FORMATION
OF THE GOVERNMENT MAY BE IMMINENT, WE STILL SEE MANY
ROADBLOCKS AHEAD. IN CONTENDING THAT THE COMPOSITION OF
THE ASSEMBLY IS NOW SET, NTAGERURA IGNORES TWO IMPORTANT
POINTS. FIRST, AS REPORTED IN REF (B), PL FACTION LEADER
LANDOALD NDASINGWA'S ACCEPTANCE OF THE SIX/FIVE DEPUTY
SPLIT AGREED TO IN THE FEB. 25 AND 27 MEETINGS IS
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CONTINGENT ON HIS FACTION RECEIVING TWO OUT OF THE THREE
PL MINISTRY PORTFOLIOS. THUS, UNTIL THE HIGHLY
CONTENTIOUS ISSUE OF PL MINISTERIAL PORTFOLIOS IS
SETTLED, THERE IS NO DEAL ON THE DEPUTIES. SECOND, THE
RPF HAS REJECTED THE RESULTS OF THE MEETINGS, FROM WHICH
THEY WERE EXCLUDED, AND WOULD PRESUMABLY BOYCOTT ANY
SWEARING IN CEREMONY BASED ON THE COMPROMISES AGREED TO
IN THE MEETINGS; THE LANDOALD WING OF THE PL, AND
POSSIBLY OTHER HABYARIMANA OPPONENTS, WOULD PROBABLY JOIN
THEM. NTAGERURA ALSO FAILED TO MENTION THAT, WHILE THE
MDR MAY HAVE AGREED IN PRINCIPLE TO A MINISTERIAL
DIVISION BETWEEN THE PRO- AND ANTI-TWAGIRAMUNGU FACTIONS,
THE PARTY STILL MUST DECIDE WHICH PARTY MEMBERS FROM EACH
FACTION WILL TAKE WHICH MINISTERIAL PORTFOLIOS. THIS
ISSUE COULD PROVE AS DIFFICULT TO SETTLE AS THE PL
SPLIT. WE HOPE THAT NTAGERURA FAITHFULLY REPORTS BACK TO
HABYARIMANA ON THE POINTS WE RAISED, AND THAT HABYARIMANA
TAKES SERIOUSLY OUR ADVISE TO MAINTAIN A DIALOGUE WITH
ALL SIDES, INCLUDING THE RPF. END COMMENT
TALBOTT
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