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0238
DRAFTED BY: AF/C: KCAISTON
APPROVED BY: AF/C: AXRENDER
19DA7C 131610Z /38
P R 131609Z JAN 94
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO AMEMBASSY KIGALI PRIORITY
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY PARIS
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
CONFIDENTIALSTATE 011907
YAOUNDE FOR DATT
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STATE 011907 131608Z
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL PGOV RW
SUBJECT: UWIMANA SEES RPF MANEUVERING BEHIND IMPASSE
1.
CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2. SUMMARY. ON JAN. 7, RWANDAN AMBASSADOR ALOYS UWIMANA
MET WITH AF/c DIRECTOR RENDER AND RWANDA DESKOFF AISTON
TO DISCUSS THE CURRENT IMPASSE OVER FORMING THE
BROAD-BASED TRANSITION GOVERNMENT. UWIMANA SAID HE
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: JOHN L MILLS
DATE/CASE ID: 01 NOV 2007 200103014
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DODE-00
10-16
PA-01
TRSE-00
UNCLASSIFIED
THOUGHT THE RPF WAS MANEUVERING TO OBTAIN A TWO-THIRDS
MAJORITY IN THE NEW ASSEMBLY IN ORDER TO OUST PRESIDENT
HABYARIMANA FROM POWER. AF/C DIRECTOR RENDER STRESSED
THAT ALL SIDES MUST ADHERE TO THE PEACE ACCORDS AND SHOW
FLEXIBILITY AND GOOD WILL. SHE EMPHASIZED THAT THE
RWANDANS MUST FORM THE NEW GOVERNMENT AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE. END SUMMARY.
UWIMANA: RPF WANTS HABYARIMANA OUT; SHADES OF BURUNDI?
3. UWIMANA OPENED THE MEETING BY COMPLAINING THAT THE
ARUSHA ACCORDS ARE BASED ON A DIVISION OF POWER WHICH
DOES NOT REFLECT THE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL REALITIES OF
RWANDA. HE SAID THE ACCORDS ARE UNCLEAR ON HOW TO HANDLE
THE PROBLEM OF COMPETING LIBERAL PARTY (PL) AND
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICAN MOVEMENT (MDR) MINISTERIAL AND
PARLIAMENTARY LISTS AND BLAMED THE RPF AND THE OPPOSITION
FOR THE CURRENT IMPASSE. ACCORDING TO UWIMANA, THE RPF
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AND THE OPPOSITION ARE TRYING TO OBTAIN A TWO-THIRDS
MAJORITY IN THE TRANSITIONAL NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (TNA) IN
ORDER TO OUST HABYARIMANA THROUGH THE USE OF ARTICLE 11
OF THE PEACE PROTOCOL ON MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES. (NOTE:
ART. 11 PROVIDES THAT THE TNA CAN INDICT THE PRESIDENT ON
A TWO-THIRDS VOTE FOR VIOLATIONS OF FUNDAMENTAL LAW; THE
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT HAS SOLE AUTHORITY TO DECIDE WHETHER
THE PRESIDENT MUST RESIGN IN SUCH CASES.)
4. THE RWANDAN AMBASSADOR SAID HE FEARED THE RPF AND THE
OPPOSITION ARE TRYING TO DO THE SAME THING THAT THE
TUTSIS TRIED IN BURUNDI -- TO THROW OUT THE HUTU
PRESIDENT AND RETAKE POWER. HE SAID A TUTSI-LED
TWO-THIRDS ASSEMBLY MAJORITY WAS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ALLIANCES WITH MEMBERS OF THE HUTU OPPOSITION, AND NOTED
POINTEDLY THAT UPRONA (BURUNDI'S MAIN TUTSI PARTY) HAS
HUTUS TOO. HE REITERATED HIS BELIEF THAT THE RPF WAS
SOMEHOW INVOLVED IN THE FAILED COUP ATTEMPT IN BURUNDI
AND REPEATED THE CLAIM THAT RPF COMMANDER KAGAME HAD GONE
TO BURUNDI SHORTLY BEFORE THE COUP ATTEMPT.
RENDER SAYS GOR MUST FOLLOW ACCORDS, FORM GOVERNMENT
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5. AF/C DIRECTOR RENDER STRESSED THAT THE GOR AND OTHER
PARTIES MUST RESPECT AND ADHERE SCRUPULOUSLY TO THE
ACCORDS, WHICH ARE A SOLEMN OBLIGATION OF THE GOR WHICH
CANNOT NOW BE RE-OPENED. THERE COULD BE NO QUESTION OF
ATTEMPTING TO SETTLE MATTERS THROUGH MEANS OTHER THAN
ADHERENCE TO THE ACCORDS. UWIMANA RESPONDED THAT THE GOR
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WAS STILL COMMITTED TO THE PEACE PROCESS AND WAS NOT
PROPOSING TO CHANGE ARTICLE 11 OR ANY OTHER PART OF THE
PEACE ACCORD; THE RWANDANS JUST WANTED TO KNOW WHAT TO
DO TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF THE COMPETING LISTS.
6. AF/C DIRECTOR RENDER REPLIED THAT ALL PARTIES NEED TO
BE FLEXIBLE AND CONTINUE THE DIALOGUE TO GET AROUND THE
IMPASSE AND INSTALL THE BROAD-BASED TRANSITION GOVERNMENT
AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. SHE SAID THAT THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY WAS WATCHING DEVELOPMENTS IN RWANDA CLOSELY AND
EXPECTED THE RWANDANS TO ABIDE BY THEIR COMMITMENTS.
AMB. RENDER EMPHASIZED THAT THE ISSUE OF THE COMPETING
LISTS HAD TO BE RESOLVED BY THE RWANDANS THEMSELVES AND
THAT IT WAS NOT OUR PLACE TO PROPOSE WHICH LIST TO ACCEPT
OR WHICH DEPUTIES OR MINISTERS TO INCLUDE IN THE NEW
GOVERNMENT. DESKOFF NOTED THAT ALL SIDES WERE IN SOME
WAY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE IMPASSE, WITH EACH FACTION TRYING
TO ASSURE THAT THE TRANSITION GOVERNMENT WOULD BE
COMPOSED IN SUCH A FASHION AS TO MOST FAVOR ITS OWN GROUP.
7. AMB. RENDER NOTED THAT ONCE THE TNA IS ESTABLISHED,
THE PARTIES WILL NATURALLY FORM COALITIONS ON VOTES.
THIS IS PART OF A DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM. SHE ADDED THAT THIS
IS ONLY A TRANSITION, THAT ELECTIONS WOULD BE HELD AT THE
END OF THE TRANSITION PERIOD, AND THAT HABYARIMANA'S
PARTY WOULD BE FREE TO COMPETE AND WOULD BE REPRESENTED
ACCORDING TO ITS POPULAR SUPPORT, ALONG WITH ALL OTHER
PARTIES THAT CHOOSE TO PRESENT THEMSELVES IN THE
ELECTIONS.
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UWIMANA PAINTS DARK PICTURE IF RWANDA BLOWS UP
8. UWIMANA SAID HE THOUGHT THE SITUATION ON THE GROUND
WAS TENSE AND SAID THE RPF WAS A "MENACING" PRESENCE.
AF/C DIRECTOR RENDER NOTED THAT ONCE THE NEW GOVERNMENT
IS IN PLACE AND BEGINS WORKING, CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE
TWO SIDES SHOULD INCREASE. SHE STRESSED THE NEED FOR ALL
SIDES TO SHOW GOOD WILL AND ACT IN THE NATIONAL INTEREST.
9. THE RWANDAN AMBASSADOR WARNED THAT IF THINGS TURN
SOUR IN RWANDA, IT COULD BE WORSE THAN IN BURUNDI SINCE,
ACCORDING TO UWIMANA, THE RWANDAN POPULATION IS MORE
POLITICIZED. MOREOVER, HE SAID THE RWANDAN ARMY WAS NOT
COMPLETELY COHESIVE. WHEN ASKED IF THE PRESENCE OF
INTERNATIONAL TROOPS MIGHT MAKE A DIFFERENCE, UWIMANA
SAID DARKLY THAT IT HADN'T SEEMED TO HELP IN ANGOLA AND
THAT IF RWANDA EXPLODES, IT COULD BE OVER IN TWO OR THREE
DAYS. DESKOFF POINTED OUT THAT IF ALL SIDES ADHERED TO
THE ACCORD, RWANDANS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AVOID BECOMING
"ANOTHER BURUNDI".
10. COMMENT: UWIMANA REMAINS SUSPICIOUS OF THE RPF'S
MOTIVES, AND IT IS READILY APPARENT THAT THE EVENTS IN
BURUNDI HAVE ONLY DEEPENED HIS SUSPICIONS. HE SEEMS
UNWILLING TO CONCEDE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HABYARIMANA
MIGHT BE PLAYING THE SAME NUMBERS GAME AS THE RPF. HIS
DEEP DISTRUST SUGGESTS THE GREAT GAP THAT STILL REMAINS
TO BE BRIDGED BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES BEFORE PROSPECTS FOR
REAL NATIONAL RECONCILIATION ARE REALIZED.
TARNOFF
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